HoopsHype.com Columns

Picking apart the draft
by Chad Finn / June 27, 2003

If the phrase "Pervis Ellison, No. 1 overall pick" isn't proof enough that the NBA draft is an inexact science, then let me take you back to pro basketball's big night in 1996. I consider this the all-time funniest sequence in the history of the draft, and it's rather telling, too.

Cue David Stern: With the 11th selection, the Golden State Warriors select Todd Fuller . . .

Then: With the 12th selection, the Cleveland Cavaliers select Vitaly Potapenko . . .

And finally, the kicker: With the 13th selection the Charlotte Hornets select Kobe Bryant.

Two lessons here. Choosing a tall, lumbering white guy in the lottery generally is bad for a franchise's health, especially when you pass up a Jordan-mimicking future Hall of Famer to do so.

And: A team's draft can't be properly analyzed until a few seasons have passed.

The latter lesson is especially true nowadays. The foreign invasion and the influx of straight-outta-the-prom prep stars make the modern NBA Draft more of a guessing game than ever before.

Last year, the consensus "sure thing" in the draft was Duke's Jay Williams, who went second overall to the Chicago Bulls. One year later, Williams's basketball future is anything but certain. The Williams saga proves, yet again, that even a sure thing isn't a sure thing. There are too many potholes (and telephone poles) on the road to superstardom.

At this hour, no one truly knows who got a steal and who got the next Todd Fuller in last night's draft. It would be wise to watch these young hotshots play, oh, maybe a minute or two in a real, live NBA game before we judge.

But as Rick Pitino might have said during his Reign of Error in Boston: Where's the fun in patience? The NBA draft is heaven for a hoops fan, and so is the immediate, gun-jumping, this-kid-is-a-lock-but-don't-hold-me-to-it post-draft analysis. Sure, the draft is an inexact science. But that doesn't mean we can't toss out a giddy hypothesis or two.

So with that lengthy caveat, we present to you our winners and losers from last night's festivities. Check back in three years to see if we're speaking the truth.

Winner: Denver Nuggets. Carmelo Anthony is Antoine Walker with a brain. His sweet jumper and sweeter disposition is going to help the Nuggets win a lot of fans, and maybe even a few basketball games.

Loser: Detroit Pistons. Joe Dumars rarely missteps, but if you watched the NCAA Tournament, you know there's something special about 'Melo. Darko Milicic had better be special too, or the lanky Serb could become Dumars's personal Sam Bowie.

Winner: Cleveland Cavaliers. LeBron equals relevance. Next question.

Loser: Toronto Raptors. Tough break, having the fourth selection in a three-phenom draft. Chris Bosh has supposed upside, but if it goes unfulfilled, he might as well change his name to Kelvin Cato.

Winner: Miami Heat. Don't look now, but Pat Riley could be relevant again soon -- his Heat is on the rise. Dwyane Wade joins Caron Butler to give Miami a versatile young nucleus, and second-rounder Jerome Beasley was the talk of the Portsmouth camp.

Loser: Los Angeles Clippers. Hey, isn't that Todd Fuller? Oh, wait. It's Chris Kaman.

Winner: Milwaukee Bucks. So long, Gary Payton. Hello, TJ Ford. Give me the promise of the future over the glory of the past every time.

Loser: Chicago Bulls. Kirk Hinrich, a younger version of Bulls GM John Paxson right down to the dorky haircut, will not come close to offsetting the loss of Jay Williams. Which reminds me: Did someone -Dean Smith, maybe? -put some kind of a hex on Duke point guards? First Bobby Hurley, and now J-Will. If I'm Chris Duhon, I'm looking both ways before I cross the street.

Winner: Washington Wizards. If Jarvis Hayes can convince Jerry Stackhouse that passing really is permitted in the NBA, the ready-made pro from Georgia will be a sleeper candidate for rookie of the year. Second-rounder Steve Blake will reunite with former Maryland running-mate Juan Dixon at the end of the Washington bench.

Loser: Boston Celtics. Rookie GM Danny Ainge got the guard he coveted in UNLV speedster Marcus Banks, but he had to cut a deal with savvy ol'Jerry West to do so. For some reason, I doubt a novice trader like Ainge is going pull the wool over Mr. NBA Logo's eyes. Look for Troy Bell to blossom into the second coming of Dana Barros in Memphis, and listen for the "Why can't we get players like that?" wails from Celtics fans who admired Bell for four years at Boston College.

Winner: Los Angeles Lakers. Mitch Kupchak played the draft game so shrewdly, one has to wonder if West was offering tips to his longtime protégé. Graceful at 6-foot-10 and blessed with a gorgeous shot, it won't take long for Brian Cook to become Shaq's ideal complement at power forward. And second-rounder Luke Walton, he of the stratospheric basketball IQ, immediately becomes the Lakers' most willing passer. By the way, anyone
else wondering how ex-Blazer/Clipper/Celtic Bill Walton feels about his boy playing for the Lakers? Betcha he thinks it's a terrrrribble idea.

Loser: Seattle SuperSonics. First-rounders Nick Collison and Luke Ridnour were the two weakest in Chicago. Obvious conclusion: The Sonics enjoy getting sand kicked in their faces in the rugged West.

Winner: Phoenix Suns. The scouting report on Leandrinho Barbosa: "terrific ballhandler . . . great athlete . . . suspect shooting mechanics." Sounds like he already has a lot in common with his new teammates.

Loser: Portland Trail Blazers. Just what they needed. Another Outlaw on a roster full of 'em.

Winner: LeBron James. The Cavs won the lottery. So did their top pick. He's pocketing $90 million to wear his Nikes, and he won't even scuff them up on an NBA court for another few months. The kid can afford a retro jersey for every player in hoop history now.

Loser: LeBron James. ESPN's Jay Bilas calls him the best non-point-guard passer to come along in years. It had better not be hyperbole, because King James will have to be the Prince of Passing if he wants to coexist with conscienceless chuckers Ricky Davis and Dajuan Wagner.

Winner: The NBA. They may not equate to Bird and Magic circa '79 or Jordan and Olajuwon in '84, but James and Anthony have as much skill and charisma as any duo to arrive on the NBA scene in several seasons.

Considering that the recent Nets-Spurs NBA Finals brickfest turned off more than a few faithful fans, their timing couldn't be better.

That much, we're already sure about.

Chad Finn is an award-winning sports columnist and a regular contributor to HoopsHype.com

Tell us what you think about this column. E-mail us at HoopsHype@HoopsHype.com