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Fine NBA prospects at Final Four
by Dennis Hans / April 5, 2005

Several players who competed in the NCAA Final Four look to be ready to help an NBA team.

Keep in mind, however, that projecting how a collegian will do in the pros is far from an exact science. You’re watching the guy against fellow collegians, most of whom are several cuts below NBA material. Zone defenses don’t let you see how a certain player will handle man-on-man assignments, which is a staple of the NBA game, and zones, double-teams and the imperative of staying out of foul trouble regularly prevent good players from displaying or even developing a complete offensive repertoire.

The situation generally is a bit better at the Final Four: Only good teams make it that far, and good teams tend to play in a style and fast-paced tempo that showcases their talent. But this year’s finale was a disappointment in that regard, with the Tar Heels playing lots of zone because of foul trouble and Illinois jacking up 40 treys. One might just as well evaluate a prospect by playing him in a game of H-O-R-S-E. Any system of rules that routinely puts key players on the bench or in a straitjacket because of fouls and makes a boring and fairly easy 20-foot jumpshot the most important play is a bad system – bad for talent evaluators, and horrible for the players themselves. The people who make the NCAA rules are even dumber than their NBA counterparts.

It’s not clear which underclassmen will declare for the draft, but here in no particular order are some of the Final Four competitors who strike me (an occasional observer of the NCAA scene) as ready to contribute to an NBA team.

- Dee Brown. This guy would make a fine backcourt running mate for Kobe Bryant or LeBron James, as both the Lakers and the Cavs are looking to be an exciting, uptempo team in the Suns’ style, and both desperately need a quick playmaker. Brown is superquick; he reminds me of a smaller Lindsey Hunter, but with better scoring skills. Another reason why Brown would complement Kobe or LeBron is because he can play with or without the ball. So even if he’s running around and spotting up at the offensive end while his partner does his thing with the ball, at the other end he’ll be the quickest point-guard defender in the league.

- Deron Williams. The first thing I noticed about this guy is that his quickness style is similar to Jason Kidd (a point Dick Vitale has made) and Magic Johnson. That is, with the ball he’s got a short, quick, shifty gait and can stop-and-start with the best of them, and he’s got lateral quickness for the defensive end. Now he’s definitely not as quick as a young Jason Kidd; but if you could speed Williams up by 10 or 15 percent it might be a perfect match. He handles the ball and passes quite similarly to Kidd, though again at a slightly lower level of excellence. And like a young Kidd, he’s only a so-so shooter. It will be interesting to see if he can make it as a starting point guard. Initially, he might make his mark as a fine combo guard coming off the bench in a three-guard rotation. His versatility is such that he can team with a 1 or a 2, or with a speedy little guy or a lengthy swingman.

- Raymond Felton. Watch out. He might be the next Gilbert Arenas – a do-it-all point guard with the speed, quickness and elusiveness of a great running back or punt returner. Another way to describe him is as a Baron Davis-type with much better shot selection and a healthy back. Of all the Final Four performers, Felton has the best chance to be an NBA star.

- Francisco Garcia. Looks to be a poor man’s Tayshaun Prince with slightly less wingspan. He’s got a real nice all-around game and could in time develop into a Prince-style player, though at a lower level of excellence. He may not be able to defend some of the bigger and stronger small forwards, as Prince can, so Garcia’s niche may be limited to the big guard spot. But his ballhandling and playmaking skills make him much more than a catch-and-shoot type. He’d fit nice on a team like Phoenix, or on any of the growing number of teams who are beginning to appreciate guys who are fully formed, multidimensional players who can blend well with whoever else is on the floor.

- Sean May. He inherited the smarts and soft touch of his dad, the great Indiana Hoosier forward Scott May, but he reminds me even more of the wrestler Dusty Rhodes – big, wide, powerful without being muscularly “ripped,” and incredibly coordinated. As for basketball analogies, May’s polished footwork and skills in the low post remind me of a Tar Heel from back in the day – Shaquille O’Neal’s favorite whipping boy and the current GM of the Lakers, Mitch Kupchak. Kupchak was long and lean, but that’s where the differences end. Like MK, May has a repertoire of moves and shots that make him a nightmare to guard. In the NBA, May will be tested by taller defenders, and the wider three-second lane (16 feet compared to the NCAA’s 12 feet) will pose an additional challenge, but I look for him to continue to be a clever, efficient scorer and a terrific rebounder. I suspect he’ll have much less success at the defensive end. That’s how Kupchak was before knee injuries wrecked a fine NBA career: a highly efficient scoring machine but just a so-so defender.

- Marvin Williams. North Carolina is one of the few schools where players develop an array of offensive skills, so my advice to Williams is to stay at least another year. The talk is that he’d be a sure-fire lottery pick, but I haven’t been that impressed. It’s easy to put up numbers when a college defense is geared to stopping your teammates. I’d like to see Williams show what he can do while carrying the scoring and rebounding load that May carried this past season.

- Rashad McCants. He’s a bit on the short side (6-4) as NBA shooting guards go these days, so he might be overlooked by GMs who live and die by the tape measure. He reminds me of a less-versatile version of the Sonics backup combo guard, Antonio Daniels, back when he played mostly at the 2 spot with San Antonio. Unlike Daniels, it doesn’t appear that McCants will ever be able to slide over to the point, so to make it in the NBA he needs to supplement his fine outside stroke with in-between scoring skills a la Rip Hamilton and power moves a la Jerry Stackhouse, utilizing a first step that’s impressive, though not in Stackhouse’s class.

Dennis Hans’s essays on basketball — including the styles, rhythms and fundamentals of free-throw shooting — have appeared online at the Sporting News and Slate. His writings on other topics have appeared in the New York Times, Washington Post and Miami Herald, among other outlets.

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