HoopsHype.com Columns

Return to Raptorland
by Brad Gagnon / April 20, 2007

Last year the Suns and the Lakers brought us on a wild, seven-game ride to open the NBA playoffs. The only opening round series to go the distance saw a heavily favored Phoenix team pushed to the brink by a Los Angeles one-man army turned balanced attack.

Kobe Bryant was still the star, but was suddenly getting extra help from supporting cast members Lamar Odom and Luke Walton, and the even-keeled Lakers jumped ahead of the NBA’s best offensive team early.

Ultimately the second-seeded Suns pulled it out, winning the series’ final three games in the face of elimination and scoring 361 points in the process.

Every year there’s at least one first-round matchup like this one that captures the imaginations of fans everywhere. And it’s not always the one you’d expect to spark the most dramatic moments.

How do we identify that matchup beforehand? How do we find Suns-Lakers, 2007?

MISMATCHES ARE OUT

We can rule out both 1 vs. 8 games. Only twice in league history has a No. 1 seed been upset in Round 1. And without both teams in a series having a realistic shot at victory, the dramatics take a hit.

No disrespect to Golden State or Orlando. The Warriors went on a nice run to finish the season, winning nine of their last 10 games to sneak into the eighth spot. And the Magic, who have won five of six, recovered from a dreadful midseason slide to hang on to a playoff spot. But we’re talking about the 67-15 Dallas Mavericks and the 53-29 Detroit Pistons.

The Spurs are the hottest team in basketball heading into the postseason, and despite the fact the Nuggets have finally found their legs with Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony, the matchup is too uneven to be a thriller.

Sure, you could argue the Suns-Lakers series was supposed to be slanted Phoenix’s way last year, but despite the difference in seeding Phoenix only finished nine games ahead of Los Angeles. The Spurs, on the other hand, finished 13 games up on Denver and went 23-3 after the All-Star break before barely making an effort and dropping their last three, meaningless games.

In comparison, Phoenix was prime pickin’ for a first-round choke after finishing the 2005-06 season 9-9. The Lakers finished 12-6 over the same stretch, won their final five games, and were a trendy upset pick.

NO GILBERT, NO FUN

Rule out Cleveland-Washington. This matchup was sexy in February, but without Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler and having lost eight of 10, the Wizards might merely be lucky to avoid a sweep.

DON'T EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE

Is it possible this year’s Suns-Lakers could naturally be, well, Suns vs. Lakers? The mini-rivalry the teams created in last year’s first round has no reason to die down. But Phoenix won seven more games this year than last. Los Angeles won three less.

But the primary reason this year’s series won’t be that series, the reason why it won’t be the matchup that everyone talks about is that this time Phoenix didn’t limp into the postseason like they did a year ago. Instead, they’ve won eight of 11. The Lakers aren’t exactly rolling into postseason play either, having lost six of nine.

CONTENDERS vs. PRETENDERS

In the Western Conference’s middle matchup, Utah and Houston could play a close series. In fact, no series has two teams with more similar records (the Jazz went 51-31 and the Rockets were 52-30).

But the Rockets, despite being the fifth seed, get home-court advantage thanks to that extra victory. And Houston should have a distinct advantage.

The Rockets are finally healthy heading into Round 1. Yao Ming missed more than a quarter of the season with a leg injury, and Tracy McGrady battled back problems on and off. Both sat out the season finale and are expected to be ready to go in Game 1. With both Yao and T-Mac in the lineup, the Rockets shouldn’t have too many problems against an overachieving Jazz team with little playoff experience.

A BULLRING MATCHUP?

The Bulls are known for their defense and the Heat sport the third-worst offense in the association. Sure, Miami finally has their full team intact and it can be argued defense vs. defense makes for just as exciting results as the opposite. But despite the fact this series will get all the Eastern Conference pub, it’s missing the plot we’ll see in Toronto when the Raptors and Nets tip things off Saturday.

AND THE WINNER IS…

The opening round’s hottest storyline will be manifested in the Raptors-Nets series, with Vince Carter returning to his old stomping ground to attempt to crumble the empire he had a hand in building. The Nets are recovering from an injury-riddled regular season, and the Big Three of Carter, Jason Kidd and Richard Jefferson are intact.

Carter vs. The City of Toronto, New Jersey’s Big Three star power vs. Toronto’s newfound depth and the overall even matchup make this the most dramatic series of the first round. But additionally enticing is the probability that the winner, regardless of who it is, will likely drive the most loaded bandwagon in the league into the second round.

The Nets floated along under .500 most of the season and finished sixth in the East. Since 2002, the last time the Raptors were seen in the playoffs, they’ve averaged 29 wins per season, including only 27 last year. The winner of this series will be an instant Cinderella.

The Raptors, who have home-court advantage, dominated the often shorthanded Nets in Toronto this season, winning convincingly both times the teams met at the Air Canada Centre.

But things could be drastically different when the series shifts to New Jersey, where the Nets won both times against Toronto in 2006-07.

In addition to the juicy storyline is indeed the fact that the Nets have a very good shot at upsetting the Raptors.

Sure Toronto is hot. They were six games below .500 32 games into the season, and finished the year on a 34-16 run. But the Nets hit their low-point not even a month ago, falling seven games under the .500 mark. They went on to win 10 of their last 13 and finished 41-41.

New Jersey was 11-16 without Jefferson this season and 0-2 without Kidd and Jefferson. The Big Three have been together every game since March 9. In that timeframe, New Jersey has gone 13-8. Jefferson was missing both times Toronto beat New Jersey this season.

The Nets beat Toronto both times Carter, Kidd and Jefferson suited up for them.

How similar are these teams? Toronto averaged 99 points per game, and gave up 98. New Jersey averaged 98 points and gave up 98 as well.

Neither team plays with an established center. The Nets lost a key big man when Nenad Krstic went down only 26 games into the season with a knee injury. The Raptors have only quasi-committed themselves to Rasho Nesterovic, who often starts but rarely finishes.

Chris Bosh is obviously the pivotal difference, and if the Raptors take the series it will likely be because Jason Collins and Mikki Moore have trouble dealing with him on the offensive and/or defensive end.

The exciting moments of the series could spring from the point guard spot. Triple-double machine and future Hall of Famer Kidd obviously brings more to the table than TJ Ford, but Ford is streakier. He’s faster and flashier than the 34-year-old Kidd, and arguably every bit as exciting.

Last year, the sixth-seeded Lakers forced the third-seeded Suns seven games deep, at one point setting up a likely LA vs. LA second-round battle.

Every playoff series is the talk of the town, but that one was the talk of the country. The Raptors and Nets should have the same effect.

But, this time, the excitement will cross borders.

Brad Gagnon is a freelance reporter from Toronto

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