US Presswire

To my HoopsHype readers: 

My absence from regular articles during the past several months is owed to the considerable time that I’ve been investing in compiling a mammoth dataset which examines every single team in every single playoff series since 1992 from a variety of statistical angles. This includes a total of 300 playoff series from 1992-2011.
I have been fortunate to have the indispensable help of fellow attorney Ashley Smith in the data gathering and, more recently, Sports Economics professor David Berri, who has provided Wins Produced data and who will be helping with our regression analyses.
What follows is some very early descriptive statistics derived from our dataset. We have looked at all 160 teams who have played in second-round series and discuss where this year’s second round teams stack up against history.
While this won’t be the inflammatory opinion piece that some of you have come to expect from me, it is 100 percent factual and, hopefully, 100 percent interesting. 
OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY:
Teams who have an Offensive Rating of 112 and higher are 17-6 against their second-round opponent since 1992. The highest Offensive Rating among remaining playoff teams is San Antonio with 110.9.
Teams who have an Offensive Rating of 102 and lower are 13-17 against their second-round opponent since 1992. The lowest Offensive Rating among remaining playoff teams is Boston with 101.
Teams who have an Offensive Rating differential of 5 or more versus their second-round opponents are 12-1 since 1992. The highest Offensive Rating differential in this year’s second round is the Thunder with a +3.8 diff over the Lakers.
Teams who have a Defensive Rating of 100 or less (lower is better) are 19-13 since 1992. The Celtics and Sixers are best, with 98.2 and 99.2 respectively. 
Teams who have a Defensive Rating of 108 or higher (lower is better) are 11-34 since 1992. The Clippers are worst among second-round teams with 105.7. 
Teams who have a Defensive Rating differential of -5 or better versus their second-round opponent since 1992 are 14-7. The highest Defensive Rating differential in this year’s playoffs is the Heat with a -2.9 diff over the Pacers.
Teams with combined Offensive Ranking + Defensive Ranking of 10 or better (e.g. Top 5 in both categories) are 15-2 versus their second-round opponent since 1992. The only team in this year’s playoffs with a 10 or better combined ranking is the Thunder with 10. 
Teams with combined Offensive Ranking + Defensive Ranking of 30 or worse are 9-45 versus their second-round opponent since 1992. Among second-round teams, the Celtics have the highest combined Offensive Ranking + Defensive Ranking with 28. 
Teams with an Offensive Ranking + Defensive Ranking differential of -9 or better (their combined rankings were cumulatively 9+ spots higher than their second-round opponents) are a staggering 38-1 since 1992, with the only losing team being the 1999 Hawks (-9 diff; lost to the Knicks). The Thunder have a -14 differential over the Lakers and the Spurs have a -11 differential over the Clippers. 
US PresswireEFFICIENCY STATISTICS (WIN SHARES and WINS PRODUCED):
Wins Produced (courtesy of David Berri):
Teams who have a player with 20+ Wins Produced during the regular season are 6-4 against their second- round opponents since 1992. Adjusting this year’s Wins Produced data to assume an 82-game season, the only team with a 20+ Wins Produced player is Miami (LeBron James, 21.49)
Teams who have 0 players with 10+ regular season Wins Produced are 26-52 against their second-round opponents since 1992. (Pacers have 0 this year).
Teams who have exactly 1 player with 10+ regular season Wins Produced are 95-131 against their second-round opponents since 1992. (Spurs, Lakers, Celtics, and Sixers each have 1 this year).
Teams who have exactly 2 players with 10+ regular season Wins Produced are 122-84 against their second-round opponents since 1992. (Miami has 2 this year).
Teams who have 3 or more 10+ Wins Produced players during the regular season are 18-7 against their second-round opponents since 1992. (Clippers and Thunder have 3 this year).
No teams whose Top 10 Wins Produced players combine for 62.46+ Wins Produced have not lost a second round playoff series since 1992. They are a perfect 13-0.  (Only Miami with 64.48 had > 62.46 this year [adjusted for the lockout-shortened season]).
Teams whose Top 10 Wins Produced players combine for less than 50 Wins Produced are 8-34 in second round playoff series since 1992. The Clippers (46.59), Celtics (46.72), Pacers (46.96), and Lakers (47.46) are all under 50 Wins Produced this season (adjusted for the lockout-shortened season).
Teams with Wins Produced deficits of 10+ versus their second round opponents since 1992 are 2-28. The only teams to advance in this manner are the '97 Rockets (over Sonics) with a -21.38 diff and the 2004 Lakers (over the Spurs) with a -11.08 diff. This year’s Pacers have a -17.52 diff versus Miami and the Lakers have a -10.81 versus the Thunder. 
Second-round teams whose best player is responsible for 36 percent or more of the regular season Wins Produced (among the team’s most productive 10 players) are 3-11 since 1992. The three teams who won were the 2003 Pistons (Ben Wallace 43 percent), the 1992 Jazz (John Stockton 37 percent), and the 1994 Jazz (Stockton 39 percent). The only team with a player responsible for 36+ percent of production is the Clippers’ Chris Paul at 37.9 percent of production.
Teams with regular season Wins Produced of 61+ are 20-2, with the two losers being the 1999 Jazz (61.56 Wins Produced; lost to Blazers) and the 2009 Celtics (62.22 Wins Produced; KG-less in the post-season, they lost to Orlando). The only team with > 61 Wins Produced this year is Miami, who is 64.48 (after adjustment for the lockout-shortened season). 
US Presswire
WIN SHARES (courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com):
Teams whose top 8 regular season WS players > 57.6 are 12-1 in second-round match ups since 1992. This year’s Thunder are 56.9, and the Heat are 56.4
Teams with a regular season Win Share Diff of 10+ against their second-round opponent are 23-2 since 1992. In this year’s playoffs, the biggest diffs are the Thunder (+14.16 over the Lakers) and the Heat (+8.57 over the Pacers).
Teams with Win Share deficits of 10+ versus their second round opponents since 1992 are 2-24. The only teams to advance in this manner are the '11 Mavericks (over Lakers) with a -10.2 diff and the 2004 Lakers (over the Spurs) with a -13.4 diff. This year’s Lakers have a -14.16 diff versus the Thunder. 
REGULAR SEASON TEAM SCORING DISTRIBUTION:
Teams who scored 25 percent or more of their regular season points from three-point range are 6-4 against their second-round opponent since 1992. The 2011-12 Clippers and Spurs lead second-round teams with 24 percent of their regular season points from 3. 
Teams who scored 20 percent or more of their regular season points from FT are 17-11 against their second-round opponents since 1992. The 2011-12 Heat lead second round teams with 19 percent of their regular season points from FT.
TEAM YOUTH/AGE:
Teams whose median age for their top 6 playoff MPG players is greater than 30 are 26-18 in second-round match ups since 1992. San Antonio (31) and Boston (30) have the highest median ages of the top-6 minutes receiving players in the playoffs.