HoopsHype.com Columns

Recipe for an upset
by Eddie Johnson / May 25, 2004

The Minnesota Timberwolves got the best record in the very tough Western Conference, but in the eyes of most watching the Conference Finals they have no chance to beat the Los Angeles Lakers. I must admit I am one of those people, but I will give five reasons how the Wolves beat the Lakers and win the series:

1. Kevin Garnett must average 25 points and 10-plus rebounds in the series. What that will do is negate Karl Malone from having any effect offensively and take pressure off the rest of Wolves from having to make up for the 20 points injured Sam Cassell produces most nights.

2. Cassell must eventually get healthy. Believe it or not, Sam is the Wolves' go-to guy down the stretch. He can get his shot off on any defender when the Wolves need big shots and you have to believe each game will be decided in the fourth quarter. It is also very difficult to believe Darrick Martin will continue to
put up great numbers like he did in game 2.

3. Minnesota’s bench has been dominant in the first two games and this will have to continue. The Wolves bench – led by Wally Szczerbiak – has outscored the Lakers 75 to 35. If the series goes to six or seven games, the Lakers will have to depend on an inconsistent bench, which would favor Minnesota.

4. Can Shaq be contained? Well, the Wolves found a way in Game 2 after Shaq looked unstoppable in Game 1. The key again for the Wolves is to speed the game up and get a double-digit lead. When the Lakers fall behind, they lose the patience needed to get the ball inside to Shaq, who took only 10 shots in the second game of the series.

5. Make Kobe Bryant play defense. The Wolves cannot afford to allow Bryant to be energized in the fourth quarter. Latrell Sprewell, Szczerbiak, Fred Hoiberg and Trenton Hassell must be offensive-minded when guarded by Kobe.

In the Eastern Conference, the name of the game is defense – or is it bad offense? We are dealing with two of the best defenses in the league no doubt about it, but what we have found out also is that the Pacers and the Pistons might be the worst offensive executing teams as well. After observing the first two games, I feel like I am watching Reggie Miller and Richard Hamilton run around eight mannequins who only move when they actually have the ball in their hands. You would think that one of these teams would figure out a way to combat a shot blocking team (26 total in Game 2) and that is to make the defense move – especially on the weak side. Although the Pacers lost the second game, they still are the favorites based on the fact they had the best record in the NBA this season. So here are five things the Pistons must do to win this series:

1. Ben Wallace must stay out of foul trouble. With Rasheed Wallace occupying Jermaine O’Neal, it gives “Big Ben” a chance to wreak havoc on the weak side so he can grab his usual 15-plus rebounds and alter many shots.

2. Rasheed Wallace must provide the post-up presence the Pistons need and stop drifting to the perimeter. They cannot rely on Hamilton to carry them the whole series.

3. The Pistons must continue to stop Ron Artest – 11 for 44 in the first two games – or O’Neal, who struggled in the second half of Game 2. When both are on, it will be very difficult for the offensive challenged Pistons to keep up.

4. Richard Hamilton will have to continue to fight for good looks off screens and score from the perimeter. His endless energy should wear down Reggie Miller and negate him in the fourth quarter as this physical series continues.

5. Chauncey Billups – who was 1 for 7 in Game 2 – must regain his confidence, especially from the perimeter. He will also have to provide better numbers against Jamaal Tinsley and Anthony Johnson in order to win the series.

Eddie Johnson is a regular contributor to HoopsHype.com

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