HoopsHype.com Fantasy Basketball

The final focus
by Scott Sargent / April 11, 2007

What a journey it has been. Those of you that have stayed with me all season, it’s been fun. Hopefully, you’re still alive and well in your league finals, or sitting pretty on the top of your rotisserie league. If not, no sweat – we all have our ups and downs. It’s never too early to start planning for next season, so after a few quick hits on the final stretch, we’ll talk about what to look for next year. On to this week’s focus…

Last Minute Assistance

Each season ends the same way. Some stars get crushed by the injury stick (Ray Allen, Gilbert Arenas, Zach Randolph), some get a little added rest (Dirk Nowitzki, Rasheed Wallace), and others simply vanish into the sunset with their lost seasons (Paul Pierce). While owning the aforementioned is not great, their absences do provide opportunity elsewhere. Here are a few players that can give you an added boost over the last week of the playoffs.

Nate Robinson, PG, New York Knicks

Jamal Crawford will miss the rest of the regular season, Steve Francis is as inconsistent as ever and Stephon Marbury has an injured toe. All of these occurrences have opened up the door for all 5’9” of Nate Robinson. He won’t provide you with typical point guard stats, as you’re lucky to get any assists at all. However, his ability to knock down the long ball has been great as of late and his scoring totals have responded well. Add him for the final leg, as he has the potential to keep this up even if Marbury returns.

Antonio Daniels, PG, Washington Wizards

Gilbert Arenas’ knee injury crushed the Wizards as well as fantasy owners. Primed for the playoffs, Arenas’ absence will leave a gaping hold in the starting lineup. Enter Antonio Daniels. The former MAC star won’t give you the long-range shooting abilities of Agent Zero, but his ability to dish the rock is top notch with 45 assists over the last four games. He’s getting double-digit field goal attempts which will help the scoring and has at least one steal in the last two nights. He’s a must-add in any format and should be a huge boost for the finals.

Leon Powe, SF/PF, Boston Celtics

Al Jefferson’s solid season looks like it’s over. Kendrick Perkins can’t stay out of foul trouble, and Michael Olowokandi is…well, Michael Olowokandi. This trifecta gives the rookie Powe a shot to clean up the glass for the Celtics. With 22 boards over the last three games as well as double-digit scoring, Powe is a solid deep league addition and may even work his way to standard leagues if he keeps up the solid pace. He won’t block a lot of shots, but if he keeps logging over 30 minutes, he may be worth the addition.

Tyronn Lue, PG, Atlanta Hawks

I can’t get the taste of crow out of my mouth since my proclamation of Speedy Claxton’s fantasy value at the beginning of this season. Regardless, Tyronn Lue has taken over the starting job from Anthony Johnson, and has responded very well with two straight nights of 20+ points and at least nine assists. He’s getting over 40 minutes a night, and may be one of the better point guard options over the last few games. He’ll have one more shot at playing without Josh Smith (suspension), so expect a lot more of the same.

Fantasy Awards

With the season nearing end, I felt it would be best to hand out a few fantasy awards to those deserving. Feel free to email me if you feel differently, but we’ll crown a top five for biggest surprises, biggest disappointments, and best rookies. Here it goes…

Biggest Surprises

5. Andris Biedrins, PF/C, Golden State Warriors

Going into this season, Troy Murphy was pegged as the starting center and everyone wrote off Biedrins as a factor with Don Nelson bringing in small-ball. While Al Harrington has been manning the middle as of late, you can’t deny the season that Latvian big man has had in terms of field goal percentage (60.4), points (9.9), rebounds (9.5) and blocks (1.7). He single handedly won some weeks for owners with his strings of double-digit rebounds, and will likely be a mid-round draft pick next season if he can get the minutes.

4. Tyson Chandler, PF/C, New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets

You’re telling me that Chicago couldn’t use this guy? Instead of spending the bank on Ben Wallace, all they needed to do was give Chandler a chance. He’ll likely finish the season second in rebounds with 12.4 a game (.4 behind Kevin Garnett) and will vault himself into the earlier rounds for next season with his contributions on the glass as well as shot-blocking. In a season where big men were sparse, guys like Biedrins and Chandler provided strong late-round production.

3. Al Jefferson, PF/C, Boston Celtics

Back-to-back-to-back big men. Jefferson was passed over many of times this year with the news that Kendrick Perkins and Ryan Gomes would be the front-court mainstays for the Celtics. Once both aforementioned experienced injuries or ineffectiveness, Jefferson got the nod in the middle and was one of the best centers in the league over the final half. He’s had the promise in the past, but bit many owners with injury-plagued seasons. While he’s been on the shelf over the last 10 days, owners have to be glad with his solid production this season – 15.8 PPG, 10.9 RPG, 1.5 BPG, 50.8 FG%

2. Deron Williams, PG, Utah Jazz

My colleague at DroppingDimes.com pegged Williams as his “Biggest Surprise” at the beginning of this season. Finishing this year second in assists per game with 9.4 definitely vaulted his value up to where it is today. The only thing that kept him from reaching the #1 slot on this ranking is his lack of free throw shooting and steals for a point guard, as well as the production from the guy I have pegged as numero uno. Value for value, you can argue that Williams helped owners more than Steve Nash, and #2 isn’t a bad place to be.

1. Kevin Martin, SG, Sacramento Kings

Martin came out of the gates on fire, and finished the season in the top 15 in terms of production. Martin put in over 20 points a night, and was a solid source of threes (1.6) and percentages for a shooting guard (47.8 FG%, 84.3 FT%). Add in the fact that he only turned the ball over 1.7 times a night, and you have yourself a sure-fire top thirty pick for next season, if not sooner. He was the most consistent option on an underachieving Sacramento team, and looks like he could be here to stay for the next few years. He should be the Most Improved Player in the NBA this year, and is definitely deserving of the “Biggest Surprise” award for this year’s fantasy season.

Biggest Busts

5. Shaun Livingston, PG, Los Angeles Clippers

I’m not sure how many more years of “promise” fantasy owners can endure. Couple this with the recent knee injuries, and Livingston’s time in the fantasy limelight of hope may be over. It’s not often that a 6’7” point guard with hands like this kid come around, and it’s a shame that he hasn’t blossomed yet. With Sam Cassell not young by any means, and Jason Hart not the long-term answer, it will be interesting to see the route that the Clippers go this off-season.

4. Mike James, PG, Minnesota Timberwolves

Well, at least he has his money. From one of the biggest surprises last year to one of the biggest flops this year, the contract season theory continues to hold strong. The Minnesota backcourt was a disaster this year, and James will be lucky to be drafted next year if it’s not cleared up. James likely went in the fifth or sixth rounds this season, and can now be found on waiver wires in all league sizes. Thanks for the memories, Mike.

3. Peja Stojakovic, SF, New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets

While it’s not all his fault, Stojakovic killed some owners this year with his back problems. He and Chris Paul looked like a solid combo of run-and-gun this year, and with Kevin Martin’s impact in Sacramento, the move to New Orleans looked like a positive one. However, after only playing in 13 games this year, the 2.6 threes a game did not make up for the lack of games played. He’ll be turning 30 this summer, so there’s no telling what his future holds for the former top-30 pick.

2. Brad Miller, C, Sacramento Kings

It pains me to know that I was a Miller owner, yet three of the biggest surprises this season come in the form of big men. Miller’s season provided drops in every statistical category, including a 5.5% drop in his free throw percentage and 1.5 drop in free throws attempted – both categories which made him one of the most valuable centers not long ago. He’s on the wrong side of 30, and if the Kings decide to continue to go with their backcourt for production, Miller’s reign as a C1 is pretty much over.

1. Andrei Kirilenko, SF/PF, Utah Jazz

This one was easy. Kirilenko was once a sure-fire first rounder with hustle stats that most players couldn’t even dream of. Well, with the rest of his Utah Jazz team surpassing him, he’s now the fourth scoring option on his squad and can’t run like the rest of his boys. He’ll likely not see the light of draft day until about the sixth or seventh round next year, and even then owners may be taking a big risk. His name was muttered in trade rumors earlier this season, and with the Jazz in need of a shooting guard, we may see something go down this off-season. For now, we spell “Bust” with an A, K, 4 and 7.

Rookies of the Year

5. Rajon Rondo, PG/SG, Boston Celtics

The guy can’t hit a shot to save his life, but with the ineffectiveness of Sebastian Telfair one doesn’t have to be much better to be successful. Rondo is much underrated due to his lack of scoring, but his numbers in the assists and steals column more than make up for it in my mind. His rebounding figures aren’t bad for a guard, and if the Celtics do not need offense from their point guard, it could be Rajon’s job going forward. Rondo, Tony Allen and Gerald Green could be a fun trio to watch in the future if they ever get to play together. This, we will soon find out. But for now, I’m going with Rondo as a top-five rookie this season.

4. LaMarcus Aldridge, SF/PF/C, Portland Trailblazers

Though his season has been unfortunately ended sooner than preferred due to a heart condition, Aldridge shows a lot of promise for the future on the young Trailblazers team. The Oregonian has a good piece on his recovery, but for fantasy purposes Aldridge did not disappoint. Once he was given the reigns as the starting big man, double-doubles came easily. I could argue that Aldridge could be the second best of this class over the long-term, but for now I am perfectly happy with slotting him at the #4 spot. The best remains to be seen for this kid.

3. Jorge Garbajosa, SF/PF/C, Toronto Raptors

Though not exactly a young gun like the rest of these kids, Garbajosa carried his strong pre-season on to the regular season and was a main reason for the strong year that the Raptors provided the city of Toronto. His multi-position eligibility was a benefit, and his ability to hit the long ball was even better. I don’t think we’ve seen our last 20-point game from Jorge Garbajosa, and hopefully we’ll see one soon after a speedy recovery from his ankle injury.

2. Andrea Bargnani, SF/PF, Toronto Raptors

Speaking of Raptor big men that can hit the long ball, all 6’10” of Andrea Bargnani surprised all doubters with a very strong season. After an emergency appendectomy knocked Andrea out for the season, all we have to look back on are his nights of double-digit scoring, multiple 3-point nights, and solid free throw shooting – all from a power forward. Credit Bargnani just as much (if not more) than Garbajosa with the successes of the Raptors, and don’t forget that he won’t be 22 until this fall.

1. Brandon Roy, PG/SG, Portland Trailblazers

Not much of a surprise to many of us, Roy took home the #1 slot for the rookies. He and Aldridge could form a dangerous combination over the next few years. Despite missing 30 games this season, Roy still finished in the top 100 with 17 points, 4 boards and 4 assists per game. Couple this with solid percentages, and Roy should be an early-to-mid round selection next year. I wouldn’t anticipate his point-guard eligibility next season, but if he does get the dual-use, his value increases even more.

I wish you all the best over the post season and into the summer. Check out DroppingDimes.com in the off-season for our mock draft blog as well as some other goodies. Until next time…

Scott Sargent writes for DroppingDimes.com

Tell us what you think about this article. E-mail us at HoopsHype@HoopsHype.com