Exploring the concerning clutch shooting numbers of Luka Doncic

Aug 2, 2020; Lake Buena Vista, USA; Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) drives against Phoenix Suns guard Jevon Carter (4) during the first half of an NBA basketball game Sunday, Aug. 2, 2020, in Lake Buena Vista, Fla. Mandatory Credit: Ashley Landis/Pool Photo via USA TODAY Sports

Exploring the concerning clutch shooting numbers of Luka Doncic


Exploring the concerning clutch shooting numbers of Luka Doncic

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There’s no doubt Dallas Mavericks star Luka Doncic is having a stellar season. At 21, he’s averaging 29.0 points and 9.5 rebounds with 8.8 assists so far.

It is hard to poke holes in such multidimensional productivity. But his numbers in the final five minutes of games when his team is within five points, up or down, still leave a lot to be desired.

When doing a deep dive, the good news is that he has the fourth-most assists (25) during clutch minutes. The bad news is that Dallas has been outscored by 6.0 points per 100 possessions during clutch minutes with Doncic on the floor.

Doncic is 6-for-38 (15.8 percent) on three-pointers during clutch minutes so far on the season, the worst among all players who have taken at least 25 attempts from beyond the arc during these opportunities.

Worse, he is 2-for-22 (9.1 percent) from three-point range when changing the filter to a three-point differential or less in the last three minutes of games.

The Mavericks are continuing to trust him, though, giving him some necessary and valuable experience to bolster his confidence. According to InPredictable, he is the team leader in clutch shots (80), which are defined as shots that have an elevated impact on win probability.

He also has the fourth-most buzzer-beaters or potential buzzer-beater attempted (20) among all NBA players so far this season. But his effective field goal percentage (27.5 percent) on those falls below the league average (40.0 percent) this season.

Doncic is also currently just 1-for-11 (9.1 percent) on these three-pointers, below the league average (27.2 percent) on these looks as well. In fact, the star missed two of these attempts against the Houston Rockets only a few days ago.

The good news for Dallas is that Doncic hit a turnaround jumper with less than two minutes left in overtime against the Sacramento Kings on August 4. This helped give the Mavericks the win, and with more opportunities like these, should help give Doncic the confidence for more looks moving forward.

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