HoopsHype’s Michael Scotto and Yossi Gozlan explain how Myles Turner’s injury affects the trade market. Plus, updates on the trade talks for Pistons forward Jerami Grant, what executives think of Cam Reddish joining the Knicks, Joe Cronin’s future as Portland’s general manager, and Bryn Forbes going to Denver on the latest edition of the HoopsHype podcast.
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:40 Myles Turner
Scotto: Myles Turner’s stress reaction injury to his foot could have a pretty sizable impact on the trade market. Right now, in talking with executives, there are two different feelings. A team is either going to try and buy a little lower on Turner than Indiana’s original asking price, which I recently reported as two first-round picks or one first-round pick and a promising young player. Or, teams are going to back off now that were in the mix previously due to his injury. One reason for that could be, as one NBA executive told me, “The playoff race is tight in both conferences. If a guy is going to be out for a month, you could find yourself in the play-in tournament.”
I’m curious to see how Turner’s trade market unfolds. I do think some teams that were on the border of being a playoff team are going to look elsewhere right now because that injury could take him past the trade deadline and longer. We don’t know yet. He’s going to be re-evaluated in a couple of weeks, and we’ll have a better sense of that. It’s going to cause more teams to have to do more background work on it.
Gozlan: Trading for Turner has just gotten a lot riskier for interested teams. I think this injury could keep him with the Pacers past the trade deadline. A stress reaction is going to keep him off the court for a while. Sometimes you can trade for injured players, but I don’t think that’s the kind of injury you want to take a chance on, especially if you’re trying to make the playoffs this year. Teams could ask for a discount on Turner because of his injury, but that doesn’t make too much sense for Indiana to take less for what they want. On the other hand, now could be a good time for a team that really wants him to step up and acquire him since other suitors might back off. I wonder if this might make other teams step up their offers for other centers like Christian Wood, Jusuf Nurkic, and Domantas Sabonis.
Scotto: Now, most executives believe Caris LeVert is the guy most likely to be traded in Indiana following Myles Turner’s injury news. However, that doesn’t mean teams aren’t holding out hope for Domantas Sabonis like Sacramento, as The Athletic’s Sam Amick recently mentioned on their podcast. It seems certain that the Kings are star hunting, whether it’s for Sabonis or in the Ben Simmons talks. Coming into the year, there was hope in Sacramento that they’d break their playoff drought. Thus far, it certainly hasn’t panned out that way even after making the coaching change from Luke Walton to Alvin Gentry.
Gozlan: Sabonis seems unlikely to be moved, but I still think he can be had if someone came in with a very aggressive offer for him. Sam Amick said he would be stunned if Sacramento didn’t make a big trade. I agree. I think they’re going to do something crazy and their drive towards making the playoffs. I don’t think they want to be on the wrong side of the history books. If they miss the playoffs this season, they’ll officially have the longest postseason drought in NBA history. Right now, they’re tied with the 1976-1991 Clippers for 15 straight seasons missing the playoffs. It’s not looking too good for them. Would they offer something like Richaun Holmes and two first-round picks with low protections for Sabonis? That could be the type of package that gets Indiana’s attention.
6:31 Jerami Grant
Scotto: Coming into the trade deadline, a lot of people thought Myles Turner would be potentially one of the biggest names getting moved. One NBA executive I spoke to recently said, “Jerami Grant might be the most interesting name on the market besides Ben Simmons at this point.” That executive told me he thinks a first-round pick and a good young player could be enough to land Grant from the Pistons. The prevailing sense from multiple executives I’ve spoken with is that Grant could probably garner the equivalent of two first-round picks and an expiring contract, or a first-round pick and a really nice young player with an expiring contract to offset Grant’s salary.
Another executive said, “I think something like two firsts will get it done for Jerami Grant. The Pistons stink, and he doesn’t fit their timeline. They signed him in free agency in a rebuild, and turning him into two first-round picks would be a win for Detroit.”
It was interesting to see how he wanted to leave a playoff team like Denver to have a bigger role in Detroit. Now, he has that role and showed what he can do. I’m curious if there’s a happy medium for Grant out there where he can go to a team and be in a role that keeps him happy. I don’t think, for example, that type of role would be in Chicago as the fourth option. I wonder how that’ll affect the market because Grant has extension leverage coming up, and it’s going to come at a hefty price. He could have a little bit of a say in where he could go.
Gozlan: We spoke a good amount about potential Jerami Grant destinations last week. Jake Fischer reported the Wizards are considered a favorite to trade for him, which is really interesting. He adds that a framework could consist of Deni Avdija or Rui Hachimura as assets and Montrezl Harrell. I’m not a fan of Grant to the Wizards because there’s a lot of overlap with Kyle Kuzma. I guess you could pair them together for a very lengthy versatile frontcourt, but I’m just not seeing how much better the team gets with him. There are also some luxury tax concerns going forward. He wants that four-year, $112 million extension he’s eligible for. If the Wizards want to trade for Grant, they probably want to send out more salary to stay below the tax this year. They’re already going to have some tax issues next season, assuming they re-sign Bradley Beal to a max contract. Adding Grant to that mix makes it very complicated putting the rest of the roster together. For Washington to take back Grant, I think it makes sense if they also get off another long-term contract like Davis Bertans.
Scotto: Yossi, you touched on Jake’s reporting. I also heard one of Detroit’s offers for Ben Simmons was slightly different, with the package being Jerami Grant, Saddiq Bey and Josh Jackson straight up for Ben Simmons, which was rejected. Currently, Philadelphia doesn’t view Detroit as a trade partner for Simmons. Among the teams still keeping tabs on Simmons in the trade market are the Sacramento Kings, Atlanta Hawks, Minnesota Timberwolves, Portland Trail Blazers, Toronto Raptors, and Indiana Pacers.
Speaking of the Wizards, as you touched on, Yossi, Aaron Holiday is available, and multiple teams have checked in on his price tag with Washington, league sources say.
11:55 Cam Reddish
Scotto: The Knicks traded for Cam Reddish is a swing for upside. Some executives around the league questioned trading for Reddish due to his inconsistency with his shooting, but if anyone can improve his work ethic and consistency, it’s Tom Thibodeau. That’s what the Knicks are banking on here.
One executive told me, “Cam Reddish is still young, and he’s shown defensive promise. When they were hurt and he got to play, he showed what he can do. It’s hard to find two-way wings. With Reggie Bullock gone, they didn’t replace him with a two-way wing. Remember, Miles Bridges started coming into his own in the middle of his third year and really took off in the fourth year. Sometimes, teams don’t have the patience to wait. Plus, the pick they gave up is protected.”
Another executive said, “It’s a low-risk move. Cam Reddish is talented. I’m shocked the Knicks were able to get off of Kevin Knox.”
Gozlan: For Atlanta, Reddish’s value probably wasn’t getting any higher than it is now. He had a marginalized role with them on a team deep with wings… The Reddish selection was the additional asset they got in the Trae Young for Luka Doncic trade. There’s a good chance that the Hornets pick they got for him doesn’t convey for a while, and even a decent possibility it becomes two seconds.
16:00 Portland Trail Blazers
Scotto: Some rival executives around the league believe Joe Cronin has a chance to keep the job as general manager in Portland after hiring Andrae Patterson away from the Cavaliers. Patterson received a promotion to become an assistant GM by going to Portland. You’d have to believe Patterson felt confident in Cronin’s chances of keeping the job as well to leave Cleveland where Koby Altman was just promoted and given an extension, so other promotions in Cleveland could potentially follow as well.
The other thing executives are keeping an eye on is how Cronin’s moves will affect Damian Lillard. One executive told me, “Portland only has a few more good years left with Lillard at a high level. Their best bet to turn it around is to get a high lottery pick and trade the pick.”
Another executive brought up an interesting point. He said, “If you trade CJ McCollum for young players and picks, how would Lillard take that?”
18:25 Boston, San Antonio, Denver trade
Gozlan: Denver gets a little healthier turning two injured players into a healthy one in Bryn Forbes. They needed a sharpshooter, and they got one of the most inexpensive ones. He’s shooting 42 percent from three and earning $4.5 million. They also open up a roster spot, which could help in a future move. I would keep an eye on them potentially moving Vlatko Cancar.
Boston saves money and reduces its luxury tax bill. They are $2.8 million above the tax but are effectively much closer than that when taking into account some Jaylen Brown incentives that may not be met this season. They could also structure it so they generate a $6.9 million traded player exception that they can throw on their pile of other big exceptions.
The Spurs get a second-round pick for Forbes. I wouldn’t expect Juancho Hernangomez to be in their rotation. They could use him in a future trade before the deadline, but his salary can’t be aggregated.
Boston goes from $5.6M over the luxury tax to $2.8M above, reducing their luxury tax bill by $5.1M. They could also generate a $6.9M TPE if they take Bol + Dozier into their $5.1M Kemba TPE.
Denver just $1.4M below the luxury tax, get a little healthier & open up a roster spot. https://t.co/zq9sFMg6EG
— Yossi Gozlan (@YossiGozlan) January 19, 2022
Scotto: I heard it (Forbes to Denver)… We’ll see what Forbes’ future in Denver could potentially be. I like Bol Bol for the Celtics as a potential upside swing. Boston also has PJ Dozier’s Bird Rights in case they want to do something with him for next season on a low-risk deal.
I think Boston is certainly going to be in the market more. We’ve touched on how they have interest in Jeff Green, and Aaron Nesmith is available.