More on Giannis Antetokounmpo Extension
Milwaukee will offer Antetokounmpo the five-year super-maximum as soon as free agency begins this offseason, sources said. Should the salary cap remain at the projected $115 million, the super max would be worth five years and $233.45 million. For a salary cap of $109 million — the 2019 offseason figure — the deal would be worth five years and $221.27 million.
If he doesn’t sign an extension, Milwaukee must decide if it’s willing to go all-in and sacrifice young players and draft picks to improve the supporting cast in the short term or trade him before potentially losing him for nothing. “I’d want him to be honest,” an Eastern Conference general manager told HoopsHype when asked what he would do if Antetokounmpo didn’t sign an extension. “Are you not taking the extension because you don’t want to be here? Are you keeping your options open? I’d keep him because you have as good a chance to win next year as anyone. That’s why we all are in this thing. If things are not going your way by the trade deadline, then it’s a different story.”
First, a logistical note: While the Bucks have been targeting Oct. 18 for potentially reaching an agreement on an extension with Antetokounmpo, that date is almost certain to be pushed back once the NBA sets the new calendar for the 2020-21 season. That goes likewise for the Nov. 30 deadline for an offseason deal (one day before the tentative Dec. 1 start date); we should expect that deadline to be moved.
Here's the financial breakdown of the offer the Bucks can make this offseason versus the offers that other teams can make next season (2021), based on the initial cap projection of $109.1 million. Any team other than the Bucks would be limited to offering Antetokounmpo a four-year deal for a smaller percentage of the cap. 2021-22: $38.2M (Milwaukee) vs. $32.7M (new team) 2022-23: $41.3M (Milwaukee) vs. $34.4M (new team) 2023-24: $44.3M (Milwaukee) vs. $36.0M (new team) 2024-25: $47.4M (Milwaukee) vs. $37.7M (new team) 2025-26: $50.4M (Milwaukee) Total: $221.5M (Milwaukee) vs. $140.8M (new team)
The Bucks are the only team that can offer a starting salary of 35% of the cap for five years. Under a $109.1 million cap, Milwaukee could offer $81 million more in guaranteed money -- though a new team could close some of that gap by re-signing Antetokounmpo to another max deal in 2025-26.
If Antetokounmpo passes on signing the supermax, multiple sources are adamant that the Bucks won't trade him. Milwaukee will have to persuade him to stay -- and quickly.
The Bucks will offer Antetokounmpo a supermax contract when eligible later this year, a deal that could be worth $220 million -- about $80 million more than he could get with another team as a free agent in 2021, according to ESPN's Bobby Marks. But Antetokounmpo has made it clear that his priority is winning, and that's something the Bucks haven't been able to ensure.
The season’s potential cancellation will most hurt Milwaukee, which had a league-best 53-12 unit that many experts felt had the momentum to win the championship. Antetokounmpo seems to want to stay in Milwaukee when he becomes a 2021 free agent, but only if the Bucks stand as a title contender. Sources indicate the pandemic has changed things so drastically, it’s hard to pinpoint Antetokounmpo’s future plans.
Milwaukee is going to be in a very difficult position if [Giannis Antetokounmpo] doesn’t sign the extension, because it leaves them in a position where a) he could leave for nothing (as opposed to an Anthony Davis-style trade) b) they need to be all-in on the 2021-22 season to convince him to stay, but c) they need to leave themselves in a position to survive if he leaves.
Of those criteria, I’d say the last one is by far the least important. The Milwaukees of the world don’t get a lot of chances at talent of this caliber. Giannis is the best player this franchise has had in the 40-plus years since Kareem left, and it might be another 40 before it gets a player like this again. So you do everything you can to maximize him for however long he’s there.
The more interesting part is the implications for the offseason. Does an iffy status push the Bucks to do some things they otherwise might not — say, package the first-round pick from Indiana for some immediate help at the backup wing spots? Use their full mid-level exception and re-sign Pat Connaughton even if the combination of those two moves could put them in the luxury tax? Look at larger deals involving future firsts or Eric Bledsoe?
But in truth, all of the above should be on the table even if Antetokounmpo signs the extension because the Bucks are in win-now mode. But with an extension, they can make moves with the luxury of knowing they have a six-year window rather than a one-year window. Inevitably, that changes things. Finally, there is the thought that if he doesn’t sign the extension the Bucks should trade him. I wouldn’t do this unless they have very clear smoke signals that he plans to sign elsewhere. Again, the Bucks aren’t getting access to another talent like this for a long time in all likelihood. And any trade involving Antetekounmpo is impossible to win.
In this case, both sides would be strongly motivated to figure out a reasonable cap number because underpaying the players relative to the BRI generated in that 2021-22 season would create a shortfall to the players and a cap spike in 2022. We already know the value of the national TV contract and will know all the local TV deals by then too, so expect a fair and substantial number. That is good for Antetokounmpo but also likely for the Bucks because a higher 2021-22 cap means a larger difference between what they can offer and what everyone else can bid. After all, Milwaukee can pay him 35 percent of the cap for five years with 8 percent raises while every other team can only offer 30 percent of the cap for four years with 5 percent raises.
The difference between the offer sheets is staggering. $92.5 million is a massive amount of guaranteed money to give up. Some will point to one deal being five years and the other offers only being four years, but even if you take out the $57.75 million in Year 5 (which is a massive year to remove), there is still a $34.75 million difference in the first four years. The financial advantages of signing with the hometown team as an MVP winner are clear when signing an extension eight seasons into your career. Some of the differences between what the Bucks could offer as opposed to other teams in the league disappear following Year 10 though.
In this case, both sides would be strongly motivated to figure out a reasonable cap number because underpaying the players relative to the BRI generated in that 2021-22 season would create a shortfall to the players and a cap spike in 2022. We already know the value of the national TV contract and will know all the local TV deals by then too, so expect a fair and substantial number. That is good for Antetokounmpo but also likely for the Bucks because a higher 2021-22 cap means a larger difference between what they can offer and what everyone else can bid. After all, Milwaukee can pay him 35 percent of the cap for five years with 8 percent raises while every other team can only offer 30 percent of the cap for four years with 5 percent raises.
The difference between the offer sheets is staggering. $92.5 million is a massive amount of guaranteed money to give up. Some will point to one deal being five years and the other offers only being four years, but even if you take out the $57.75 million in Year 5 (which is a massive year to remove), there is still a $34.75 million difference in the first four years. The financial advantages of signing with the hometown team as an MVP winner are clear when signing an extension eight seasons into your career. Some of the differences between what the Bucks could offer as opposed to other teams in the league disappear following Year 10 though.
“One of the things when I talk to executives out there that they say is if Giannis extends with the Bucks this summer — which depending on who you talk to is either a slam dunk or a real question — the Bucks certainly feel like they have a great chance to extend him this summer,” Windhorst said on his ESPN podcast (h/t Real GM).
“If he signs that supermax extension this summer and all of the teams that are sort of saving, you know, keeping their ammo dry for 2021 may begin to make action. They tell me this summer’s star movement may be hinged on whether or not Giannis extends or not. If he extends, you’ll all of a sudden see more action.”
“One of the things when I talk to executives out there that they say is if Giannis extends with the Bucks this summer — which depending on who you talk to is either a slam dunk or a real question — the Bucks certainly feel like they have a great chance to extend him this summer,” Windhorst said on his ESPN podcast (h/t Real GM).
“If he signs that supermax extension this summer and all of the teams that are sort of saving, you know, keeping their ammo dry for 2021 may begin to make action. They tell me this summer’s star movement may be hinged on whether or not Giannis extends or not. If he extends, you’ll all of a sudden see more action.”
There’s little doubt that Giannis Antetokounmpo, reigning and likely repeat MVP, has every reason to stick around in Milwaukee over the long term. The Bucks have a sparkling new downtown arena and a state-of-the-art practice facility, a long way from the state of play when Antetokounmpo arrived—back then, the Bucks were in the mostly moribund Bradley Center and practiced on the grounds of a Catholic Diocese headquarters in St. Francis, a few miles south of Milwaukee.
As one general manager told Heavy.com, “It’s hard to imagine him leaving the situation he is in. It’s a longshot he leaves. They’ve been very confident all along that he will want to stay in Milwaukee. They’ve never acted like a team that was panicking to make things happen.”
The Bucks have made things very easy for Antetokounmpo to stay. According to several executives around the league, though, other teams do think they have a shot at prying him from Milwaukee and have made plans around a potential play for Antetokounmpo.
In an effort to keep their star in Milwaukee, the Bucks are expected to offer Giannis Antetokounmpo a supermax contract this summer. "Is he a client you could see staying with one team for his whole career?" asked Zervakis. "Yeah, I think so. Obviously everybody talks about his impending free agency, and I think everything is open," Saratsis said. "I think he's someone who could easily say, 'I'd like to be in Milwaukee my entire career.' I think he's also someone who, depending on how the team does, could say, 'I need a change.' But for him, staying is absolutely a viable option."
"I remember one of his first games at the BMO Harris Bradley Center, and it must not have even been 1/3 full," Saratsis said. He acknowledged Giannis probably missed out on some endorsement opportunities playing in one of the NBA's smaller markets, but he said that problem evaporated as Giannis became one of the NBA's best players. "He's not a local superstar, he's not a national superstar, he's a global superstar," Saratsis said.
"He came in as an 18-year old kid who didn't speak the language," Saratsis said. "If you think about it, he grew up and is growing up to be a man in the City of Milwaukee. I think he's always going to appreciate that." "Giannis believes in loyalty, he believes in the people who've been there with him from the beginning, and I think he feels that kinship to the city because they have really helped raise him," he said.
Eric Woodyard: Coach Mike Budenholzer on if Giannis’ free agency wears on team: “I don’t know maybe there’s more than I realize but he seems in a great place, the group’s in a great place and we’ll hopefully keep it rolling.”
Bucks general manager John Hammond: "There was a max number out there, and that was discussed, discussed internally and externally. And the one thing we asked Giannis to do was take that into consideration as we move forward. Give us every opportunity. We want to become a championship-level team. There’s going to be guys and guys who have done that, players who have given back some. And it’s a little bit of the time, as we move forward, hopefully we’re going to have other guys with the organization willing to do that. Those small pieces can turn into a bigger chunk at some point."
“I want to thank my family for everything they have done all these years and for giving me the opportunity to be here,” said Giannis. “This contract will provide security for them and for my younger brothers. I also want to thank my agents, the Bucks’ owners and the coaching staff for trusting in my talent. ”
“To be honest with you I don’t really feel any of it”, he added when asked if his new contract adds more pressure on him. “I am the only one who can put big pressure on myself. I will continue doing what I’ve done all these years. I will keep working hard and put pressure on myself because I want to be great. I also I want to make my team great, I want to make them a winning team. This is a big step for me and I want to show that I am a leader on and off the court.”
Jason Kidd mentioned that: “I know his character. His biggest motivation is basketball itself. He wants to become a top NBA player who will succeed with the Bucks. That’s what he’s thinking about. He is dedicated and works hard to improve everyday.”
Giannis was spared the blue-chip American system of pampering. He’s been about the work with the Bucks, unrelenting since the moment he arrived in the NBA. He lived through horrific poverty and family illness and the most rudimentary of basketball infrastructures in Greece. Within the shadows of the Acropolis, out on the sidewalks of downtown Athens, Giannis sold pencils and trinkets and plastic sunglasses. For hours and hours as young teens, Giannis and his old brother, Thanasis, had to push themselves to raise money for the dinner table. On the way home, they stopped at the market and grabbed the essentials. Their father worked two jobs, and their mother had a stretch of illness. “We would be out on the street together, selling a toy, a watch, something, and we’d raise $10,” Thanasis told me once. “And that is good, because we didn’t starve today. We’re going to go home. We’re going to have something to eat. And it is a good day.”
Inside that modest suburban apartment three years ago, Giannis was a rookie awaiting the arrival of his family to the United States. Visa problems still hadn’t cleared the way for his parents and three younger siblings to leave Greece and come to Wisconsin. He had walked me through his three-bedroom apartment, where he had bedspreads and sheets neatly tucked and prepared on beds for his family’s arrival. He had purchased a PlayStation, but felt such guilt enjoying it without his younger brother Kosta – now a freshman at the University of Dayton – Giannis sold it to a Bucks assistant coach for the $399 he had paid to purchase it.
Once the Antetokounmpo family arrived in Wisconsin, the Bucks did a marvelous job of making it feel a part of everything there. When it was time to get an extension done this month, Giannis never considered the possibility of messing around as a restricted free agent in 2017. Hammond had always gone the distance for him – all the way back to when he scouted him in Greece – and Giannis has never talked about bigger markets, brighter lights.
The Milwaukee Bucks have reached an agreement with Giannis Antetokounmpo on a contract extension, General Manager John Hammond announced today. The contract will be finalized tomorrow afternoon at a press conference to be held at the recently-launched Wisconsin Entertainment and Sports Center (WESC) Preview Center.
Thon Maker: Congrats bro!!! @Giannis Antetokounmpo #WellDeserved #ownthefuture
Brian Windhorst: Bucks 4-year, $100 million extension with Giannis Antetokounmpo is for less than the max & there are no options, sources said.
Adrian Wojnarowski: Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo has agreed on a four-year, $100M contract extension, league sources tell @The Vertical.
Q: You're eligible for a contract extension coming up. What are you expecting? By October, you could sign an extension with the Bucks. Giannis Antetokounmpo: "Hopefully. That was what everyone's been working for, for them to extend me. Hopefully, I stay here 20 years and I get my Greek Freak Day like Kobe [Bryant]."
Antetokounmpo will earn $3 million next season in the fourth and final year of his rookie contract, but it's no secret that he'll be in line for a massive raise in the 17/18 season. The Bucks can offer him an extension of up to five years starting in July, and based on this week's revised 17/18 cap projection of $107 million, Giannis could earn a first year max salary of up to $25 million. With max raises of 7.5% of the first year salary, a five-year deal from the Bucks could be worth approximately $144 million, thus locking in the Bucks' young star as early as July. Otherwise Giannis would become a restricted free agent in the summer of 2017, where the Bucks would have matching rights and other teams could offer up to four years, 4.5% raises and a total package of around $107 million.
